12 Aug · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1483
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jr
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Cerveny Jr
ELO 1501
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (61)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H24-36
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.