12 Aug · 17:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1516
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1525
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
🌟Drozd covers set handicap as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.