12 Aug · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vidourek
ELO 1499
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vidourek
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1470
FormLLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Kabelka covers set handicap as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Vidourek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H14-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.