12 Aug · 17:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KK
🇨🇿Kamil Kleprlik
ELO 1561
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Gembala
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1566
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gembala🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (61)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.