12 Aug · 17:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Stusek
ELO 1518
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gembala
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1566
FormLWWLW
46%
54%
🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (61)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.