12 Aug · 21:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1557
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Cizek
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1555
FormWLLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Cizek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (35)
Fair odds · Cizek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H3-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.