12 Aug · 21:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Sykora
ELO 1490
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hrncir
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hrncir
ELO 1528
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sykora🌟Sykora covers set handicap as underdog 64% (80)
Fair odds · Hrncir
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.