12 Aug · 21:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1580
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vitasek
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1555
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Vitasek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (51)
Fair odds · Vitasek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.