12 Aug · 22:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1586
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Macurak
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1557
FormLWWWW
52%
48%
🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 70% (60)
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H10-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.