13 Aug · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1459
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sturma
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1424
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (57)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.