13 Aug · 10:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1499
FormWWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Matus
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1424
FormLWWLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek🌟Matus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (57)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)