13 Aug · 09:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1508
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Heuman
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1519
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Heuman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (39)
Fair odds · Heuman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H11-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.