13 Aug · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1524
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sulc
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1469
FormWWLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H36-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-28)