13 Aug · 08:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1506
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jancak
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1499
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
🌟Jancak goes over total as favourite 71% (58)
Fair odds · Jancak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H8-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.