13 Aug · 14:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1474
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Osmera
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1521
FormWLWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr
Fair odds · Osmera
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H11-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.