13 Aug · 13:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1464
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Holub
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1563
FormWWWLL
42%
58%
🌟Holub stays under total as favourite 65% (17)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+99
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+99)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)