13 Aug · 09:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1613
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Benes
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1560
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H14-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.