13 Aug · 13:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1459
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1541
FormLLLWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 74% (61)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H47-46
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (47-46)