13 Aug · 16:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1639
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Skvrna
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1575
FormLWWWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gembala🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (115)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+64
H2H28-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-23)