13 Aug · 17:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1446
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Dvorak
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1514
FormLLLWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (41)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+68
H2H31-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-20)