13 Aug · 17:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1496
FormWLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1572
FormLWLWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)