13 Aug · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1575
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Chaloupka
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1629
FormWWWLL
46%
54%
🌟Gembala covers set handicap as underdog 66% (38)
Fair odds · Chaloupka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.