13 Aug · 17:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1452
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zeman
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1487
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
🌟Zeman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (34)
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.