13 Aug · 17:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1515
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Drozd
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1487
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.