13 Aug · 18:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1448
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lorenc
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1452
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lorenc
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.