13 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1514
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Melichar
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1533
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 72% (65)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H5-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.