13 Aug · 17:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1533
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tichy
DT
🇨🇿Dominik Tichy
ELO 1564
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Tichy
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.