13 Aug · 20:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KG
🇨🇿Karol Guzy
ELO 1655
FormWLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Guzy
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1567
FormWLWWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Guzy
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+88
H2H62-42
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (62-42)