14 Aug · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1458
FormLWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Jr
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1562
FormWLWWW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (65)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+104
H2H53-56
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+104)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)