14 Aug · 08:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1506
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fojtik
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1519
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Fojtik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (16)
Fair odds · Fojtik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H13-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.