14 Aug · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1514
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Strelec
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1461
FormWWWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jemelka🌟Strelec goes over total as favourite 64% (25)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.