14 Aug · 12:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fnukal
ELO 1569
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Fnukal
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1564
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Fnukal
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.