14 Aug · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1552
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Branny
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1536
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Lasota covers set handicap as underdog 75% (24)
Fair odds · Branny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.