14 Aug · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1477
FormWLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Branny
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1552
FormWWWWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Raska🌟Branny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (32)
Fair odds · Branny
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H15-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-14)