14 Aug · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1532
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sindler
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1514
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strelec🌟Strelec covers set handicap as underdog 68% (28)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H15-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.