14 Aug · 08:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1590
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Krupnik
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1519
FormLWLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fojtik🌟Fojtik covers set handicap as underdog 69% (58)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+71
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)