14 Aug · 13:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1522
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vodal
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1464
FormLWLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Vodal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (79)
Fair odds · Vodal
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H22-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-19)