14 Aug · 13:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1519
FormWLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Srnka
JS
🇨🇿Jan Srnka
ELO 1622
FormLWWWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Srnka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+103
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+103)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)