14 Aug · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1616
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Stepien
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1550
FormLLWWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H134-60
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (134-60)