14 Aug · 15:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1539
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dzida
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1488
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.