14 Aug · 15:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1451
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sevecek
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1499
FormLLLLW
46%
54%
🌟Sevecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (20)
Fair odds · Sevecek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.