14 Aug · 11:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1622
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stepien
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1615
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H33-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.