14 Aug · 17:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1451
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lorenc
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1447
FormWWWWL
50%
50%
🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 62% (48)
Fair odds · Lorenc
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.