14 Aug · 16:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1539
FormLLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dzida
KB
🇨🇿Karel Baros
ELO 1534
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
🌟Baros covers set handicap as underdog 67% (27)
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.