14 Aug · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1554
FormWWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1623
FormWLWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H102-75
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (102-75)