14 Aug · 22:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JH
🇨🇿Jakub Horky
ELO 1437
FormLWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Horky
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1362
FormLLLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Horky
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H8-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-6)