14 Aug · 21:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1515
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kindl
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1497
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heuman🌟Heuman covers set handicap as underdog 75% (44)
Fair odds · Kindl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.