14 Aug · 22:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kadavy
ELO 1695
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kadavy
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1654
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stusek🌟Stusek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (107)
Fair odds · Kadavy
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H10-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.