15 Aug · 13:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1444
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jokiel
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1461
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
🌟Stefek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (30)
Fair odds · Jokiel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.