15 Aug · 10:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1467
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Filipek
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1472
FormWWWWL
50%
50%
🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 68% (146)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H41-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.